Unintended consequences

As I’ve watched the political campaign unfold, I’m struck by the reaction of rank and file conservatives to McCain’s nomination. While there have been some predictable howls of outrage, these come mostly from the Professional Right and Talk Radio. Groups, that is, who get paid to howl. Bob Barr is getting a little attention. A few cranky paleos are making noises about voting for Obama. All this chattering, however, has elicited little response from the larger conservative public.


This acceptance of McCain is a sign of maturity. Key elements of the Republican coalition realize that they are no longer dependent on a conservative president to save them from the liberal deluge.

This maturation process is an unintended outcome of eight years of Bush-Rove. Their methods worked for a time, but that very success has made those methods obsolete. Rove’s tactics and Bush’s inaction has led their core voters to see the presidential race in less apocalyptic terms.

Issues like gay marriage and the rights of gun owners helped Bush turn out large numbers of values voters in 2004. Gun control was a big reason that rural voters went for Bush by large margins and locked up states like West Virginia and Arkansas.

Dozens of states have passed Defense of Marriage laws and constitutional amendments. Most passed with overwhelming public support. Values voters realize that they do not have to rely on the Great Father in the Oval Office: they can achieve their goals locally on their own initiative.

Second Amendment voters have learned the same lesson, but their education left a bitter aftertaste. The truth is, Bush has done little for gun owners except collect their votes. Despite this betrayal by lethargy, gun rights are safer today than they were eight years ago. Most states have “shall issue” CCW laws. Castle doctrine laws are passing all over the country. Here in Pennsylvania, the legislature just rejected Gov. Rendell’s latest Brady-approved nostrum. Gun owners know that they can win in Congress and state legislatures. Again, this makes the presidential nominee much less important.

Bush and Rove inadvertently confirmed this with their illegal alien amnesty plan. Grass roots opposition killed it despite the White House’s best efforts to shove it through Congress. There was a two-fold lesson for conservatives. First, if this is what a “conservative” president does, how much worse can the dreaded McCain be? Second, heartland voters saw that they can fight and win battles even when the White House is against them