Red and Blue
Instapundit (yeah, like he needs my links) has snapshots of some of the "support the troops" signs put up by businesses around Knoxville.
He observes that
it seems to me that the flags mostly haven't come down, and I"ll bet there are just as many in a lot of "blue" states.
One Hand Clapping concurs:
As I mentioned, my family and I spent all last week on spring break vacation. We visited southeast Pennsylvania, ranging from Gettysburg eastward to Philadelphia. We saw a lot of American flags and signs similar to the ones Glenn posted. I even saw one small business with a "US out of UN!" sign, a sentiment more commonly attributed to the South or West than the North. In any event, Pennsylvanians seem rock-ribbed American patriots to me, at least the ones where we visited, and my guess is that the rest of the state is the same way.
i would make three points:
First, the Red/Blue divide takes place within states more than between them. Rural PA where i live now is more conservative than Charlotte NC where i used to live. Thanks to Philly, though PA was a Gore state, while North Carolina as a whole voted for Bush in 2000.
Second, i agree that there are patriots in both red and blue regions.
Third, a critical distinction between the two areas comes from something else Instapundit touched on:
There's lots of god-talk in these signs, with "God Bless Our Troops" and similar variations being quite common.
According to pollsters, religious observance is a powerful predictor of voting behavior.
One of the things that struck me after moving here from Madison WI, was the public expressions of faith. The signs after 9-11 were one example. Another was in Somerset when the Quecreek miners were trapped. As i drove up route 30 that Saturday morning, nearly every business sign carried a message of "Pray for our miners" or something similar.
I'm not saying that there are no religious people in blue regions. But red areas do tend to see more public and casual mentions of Christian faith.
Monday, March 31, 2003
One track minds: Not every crisis is a Munich, sometimes it is the destruction of the Stresa Front
Bill Whittle has a brilliant essay on History
It truly is moving. Read it here.
I especially liked his discussions of alternative futures and this:
I see history as an unimaginably huge and complicated railroad switching yard, where by moving a pair of steel rails a few inches one way or another, the great train of history can be diverted from Chicago to Atlanta. These switches may seem ridiculously small at the time, but the consequences are often immeasurable.
Very true, but it is also important to add that the working of those switches is often mysterious to us as we make decisions. For example:
In 1934, shortly after Hitler came to power, the Nazis attempted a coup in Austria. They assassinated the prime minister but were thwarted by the intervention of a powerful neighbor: Italy.
Mussolini stopped Hitler from acquiring Austria in 1934. Historically, Italy viewed Austria and Germany as dangerous. The German Hapsburgs had governed much of Italy for centuries. Italy fought with the Western allies in WWI.
Mussolini was willing to be part of an anti-Hitler coalition. In return, he expected support for some colonial adventures, especially in Abyssinia.
He did not get that support. When his troops invaded Abyssinia, the good Wilsonians of the world used the League of Nations to place sanctions on Italy. They did not stop the invasion, but they did break up the anti-Hitler Stresa Front that had been taking shape.
The debates at the League also had another effect. While the word's attention was focused on the Abyssinian crisis and the great debate at the League of Nations, Hitler marched into the Rhineland.
It wasn't just cowardice that caused France and Britain to respond weakly to Hitler's gamble, it was distraction. There was a bigger problem to be solved than a little piece of German territory being reoccupied by German soldiers. There was the fate of the League which was being ignored by Italy.
The Wilsonians picked the wrong fight and Hitler was off and running. Sometimes you can act with the best intentions and make the situation worse.
It can happen to the greatest of statesmen.
At the end of World War Two Churchill observed to one of his associates that Cromwell was a great statesman, but he was so focused on Holland and Spain, that he missed the rise of the French monarchy and the threat it posed to England. Many believe that Churchill was rebuking (or defending) himself for the same mistake: defeating Hitler while allowing Stalin too free a hand.
Sunday, March 30, 2003
This surpised me
Via a google search i ended up on a site called Sullywatch and found this:
We see from Sitemeter that none other than Joe Conason has linked to us from Salon, generating over a thousand hits. Wow
A big hitter like Conason at a high profile outlet like Salon generated over a thousand hits.
Heck, when USS Clueless tacked an update onto an existing essay and included a link here i got 850 hits from it.
Via a google search i ended up on a site called Sullywatch and found this:
We see from Sitemeter that none other than Joe Conason has linked to us from Salon, generating over a thousand hits. Wow
A big hitter like Conason at a high profile outlet like Salon generated over a thousand hits.
Heck, when USS Clueless tacked an update onto an existing essay and included a link here i got 850 hits from it.
Note
If you like the Stalingrad post from Saturday, you might want to read this one, this one and this one as well.
Thank you Mr. Rummel for the compliment and link.
If you like the Stalingrad post from Saturday, you might want to read this one, this one and this one as well.
Thank you Mr. Rummel for the compliment and link.
Question
In his obit of Sen. Moynihan, David Frum wrote:
He gave the Left his votes; he gave the Right his words. We shall see which legacy lasts longer
Moynihan's words could not change Sen. Moynihan's votes. Can we really expect that they will change someone else's vote ten years from now?
In his obit of Sen. Moynihan, David Frum wrote:
He gave the Left his votes; he gave the Right his words. We shall see which legacy lasts longer
Moynihan's words could not change Sen. Moynihan's votes. Can we really expect that they will change someone else's vote ten years from now?
Saturday, March 29, 2003
This won't be Stalingrad
Or Hue, or Mogadishu.......
Reporters and commentators like to grab at analogies. The problems is that too often they do not have an in-depth understanding of the situation in front of them or the historical analogue they cite. So they end up trading in cliches rather than offering a comparative case-study.
Stalingrad was the end of the German advance in WWII and one of the key turning points to the war. But here are a few of the critical factors in the German defeat. Note that none of them apply to the Allies in Baghdad.
The Russian winter.
The Germans were surrounded and cut-off from resupply.
The Russians had superior numbers and superior technology (the T-34 tank, for example, could outslug almost anything the Germans had in 1942).
Time was on the Russian's side They were out-producing the German's in war munitions and their supply lines were shorter. They also had more manpower. Each day the noose got tighter around the German's surrounded in Stalingrad.
Similarly, Hue, happened after three years of optimistic reports on the war's progress. The psychological shock on the home front grew out of the surprise, not battle itself. The Marines were never close to defeat.
Shock was also a factor in Mogadishu--Americans saw horrible pictures from a place they associated with a simple humanitarian mission.
Tactically, Mogadishu was a failed attempt to pull a fast raid which then required an improvised response. We took unexpected casualties. But it was not a debacle. The Ranger and Delta teams fought their way out and inflicted disproportionate losses on the Somali militias. Washington chose to pull our forces out of Mogadishu for political reasons, we were not driven out.
Points on Baghdad
Baghdad has "totalitarian boulevards"-- broad streets unsuitable for a guerrilla warfare. These will allow Allied forces to isolate a few sections of the city at a time and neutralize them.
Normally, city fighting is hard because the attacker must move in a 3-D battle field. Multi-floor buildings and sewers mean defenders can be above or below as well as in front, behind or beside the advancing units. The defender's key challenge is maintaining unit cohesion since the walls prevent men from seeing that neighboring units are still covering their flanks.
In Baghdad, the defense still has that problem of cohesion. They have the additional problem of moving reserves to meet the attacker: our air superiority and surveillance capabilities allow us to identify and attack those reserves. Our mobility also stretches his defensive perimeter.
A key question: Does our air dominance-- from UAVs to B-52s-- stretch the 3-D battlefield to the serious disadvantage of the Iraqi units.
Another key question: how will the population react when the goons are deployed in thin pockets and it becomes clear that they cannot get back-up to them when they are in trouble?
When we get close, we will be able to better monitor and disrupt Saddam's command and control. There are things that can be done on the ground that can't be done from the air.
Given the high skill and courage of our special forces, I wonder if the tunnel system Saddam built under the city will turn out to be a problem rather than an advantage for him.
Or Hue, or Mogadishu.......
Reporters and commentators like to grab at analogies. The problems is that too often they do not have an in-depth understanding of the situation in front of them or the historical analogue they cite. So they end up trading in cliches rather than offering a comparative case-study.
Stalingrad was the end of the German advance in WWII and one of the key turning points to the war. But here are a few of the critical factors in the German defeat. Note that none of them apply to the Allies in Baghdad.
The Russian winter.
The Germans were surrounded and cut-off from resupply.
The Russians had superior numbers and superior technology (the T-34 tank, for example, could outslug almost anything the Germans had in 1942).
Time was on the Russian's side They were out-producing the German's in war munitions and their supply lines were shorter. They also had more manpower. Each day the noose got tighter around the German's surrounded in Stalingrad.
Similarly, Hue, happened after three years of optimistic reports on the war's progress. The psychological shock on the home front grew out of the surprise, not battle itself. The Marines were never close to defeat.
Shock was also a factor in Mogadishu--Americans saw horrible pictures from a place they associated with a simple humanitarian mission.
Tactically, Mogadishu was a failed attempt to pull a fast raid which then required an improvised response. We took unexpected casualties. But it was not a debacle. The Ranger and Delta teams fought their way out and inflicted disproportionate losses on the Somali militias. Washington chose to pull our forces out of Mogadishu for political reasons, we were not driven out.
Points on Baghdad
Baghdad has "totalitarian boulevards"-- broad streets unsuitable for a guerrilla warfare. These will allow Allied forces to isolate a few sections of the city at a time and neutralize them.
Normally, city fighting is hard because the attacker must move in a 3-D battle field. Multi-floor buildings and sewers mean defenders can be above or below as well as in front, behind or beside the advancing units. The defender's key challenge is maintaining unit cohesion since the walls prevent men from seeing that neighboring units are still covering their flanks.
In Baghdad, the defense still has that problem of cohesion. They have the additional problem of moving reserves to meet the attacker: our air superiority and surveillance capabilities allow us to identify and attack those reserves. Our mobility also stretches his defensive perimeter.
A key question: Does our air dominance-- from UAVs to B-52s-- stretch the 3-D battlefield to the serious disadvantage of the Iraqi units.
Another key question: how will the population react when the goons are deployed in thin pockets and it becomes clear that they cannot get back-up to them when they are in trouble?
When we get close, we will be able to better monitor and disrupt Saddam's command and control. There are things that can be done on the ground that can't be done from the air.
Given the high skill and courage of our special forces, I wonder if the tunnel system Saddam built under the city will turn out to be a problem rather than an advantage for him.
Tikrit
Sherman's march through Georgia and the Carolinas weakened Lee in Virginia-- soldiers from the Deep South deserted when they realized that their families were threatened by the advancing Union armies.
Supposedly, Saddam's closest protectors and most fanatical defenders come from Tikrit, his home city. At some point in the next few days or weeks, that city will fall to the Allies. I wonder what the reaction will be inside of Baghdad when that happens.
Will it demoralize the Saddamites? Will they lose faith in Saddam? Or will it enrage them?
Sherman's march through Georgia and the Carolinas weakened Lee in Virginia-- soldiers from the Deep South deserted when they realized that their families were threatened by the advancing Union armies.
Supposedly, Saddam's closest protectors and most fanatical defenders come from Tikrit, his home city. At some point in the next few days or weeks, that city will fall to the Allies. I wonder what the reaction will be inside of Baghdad when that happens.
Will it demoralize the Saddamites? Will they lose faith in Saddam? Or will it enrage them?
Thursday, March 27, 2003
Round-up
Clayton Cramer shows how even intelligent bloggers can suffer from cultural blindspots.
Kim du Toit and Res Ipsa Loquitur find a self-defense shooting that will also make you smile.
RTfLC has further evidence that Michael Moore has journeyed far along into self-obsession.
The God of the Machine offers a short history of cryptography.
The Brothers Judd offers a nuanced take on Sen. Moynihan's career.
MJC has another (possible) example of French perfidity... in Turkey this time.
Clayton Cramer shows how even intelligent bloggers can suffer from cultural blindspots.
Kim du Toit and Res Ipsa Loquitur find a self-defense shooting that will also make you smile.
RTfLC has further evidence that Michael Moore has journeyed far along into self-obsession.
The God of the Machine offers a short history of cryptography.
The Brothers Judd offers a nuanced take on Sen. Moynihan's career.
MJC has another (possible) example of French perfidity... in Turkey this time.
Protests and ANSWER
USS Clueless explains how the anti-war protests serve purposes beyond stopping the war.
USS Clueless explains how the anti-war protests serve purposes beyond stopping the war.
Wednesday, March 26, 2003
Why Turkish Recalcitrance Didn't Rattle the Generals
Earlier, I noted the US military's capacity for self-criticism and ability to learn from mistakes.
I just ran across an example of the how they anticipate possible futures in training officers.
In Fort Leavenworth and the Eclipse of Nationhood, Robert D. Kaplan describes one of the scenarios placed before students at Leavenworth's School of Advanced Military Studies in 1996
"a messy and long-term peacekeeping operation in the Caucasus, in which U.S. forces cooperate with the Russian army, and the Turks refuse to let U.S. ships through the Bosphorus Straits"
So seven years ago they were preparing students to carry out operations where our oldest allies proved uncooperative.
Earlier, I noted the US military's capacity for self-criticism and ability to learn from mistakes.
I just ran across an example of the how they anticipate possible futures in training officers.
In Fort Leavenworth and the Eclipse of Nationhood, Robert D. Kaplan describes one of the scenarios placed before students at Leavenworth's School of Advanced Military Studies in 1996
"a messy and long-term peacekeeping operation in the Caucasus, in which U.S. forces cooperate with the Russian army, and the Turks refuse to let U.S. ships through the Bosphorus Straits"
So seven years ago they were preparing students to carry out operations where our oldest allies proved uncooperative.
Tuesday, March 25, 2003
A Matter of Perspective-- 1944
In the first seven weeks after the D-Day landings, the Allies moved their frontlines roughly 60 miles. They were bogged down and seemingly contained in the Normandy peninsula and most of France remained under Nazi occupation. Then in a matter of eight weeks or so, the German lines broke, the Allied armies broke out, and most of France was liberated.
Even as the German army was retreating back across the Rhine, some key cities held out. The Brest did not surrender until 9/19/44. Lorient and St. Nazaire held out until MAY of 1945.
The breakthrough/breakout came at the wrong place. Expectations were that the British under Montgomery would achieve it around Caen. Instead, it was actually the Americans farther west who first broke through and swept around the German lines.
Bottom line: slow progress today does not mean that the campaign is bogged down. The fact that some Iraqi units are holed up in parts of cities does not mean that we can't get to Baghdad as planned. Battles might be won where analysts aren't looking while progress is slow in the obvious places
In the first seven weeks after the D-Day landings, the Allies moved their frontlines roughly 60 miles. They were bogged down and seemingly contained in the Normandy peninsula and most of France remained under Nazi occupation. Then in a matter of eight weeks or so, the German lines broke, the Allied armies broke out, and most of France was liberated.
Even as the German army was retreating back across the Rhine, some key cities held out. The Brest did not surrender until 9/19/44. Lorient and St. Nazaire held out until MAY of 1945.
The breakthrough/breakout came at the wrong place. Expectations were that the British under Montgomery would achieve it around Caen. Instead, it was actually the Americans farther west who first broke through and swept around the German lines.
Bottom line: slow progress today does not mean that the campaign is bogged down. The fact that some Iraqi units are holed up in parts of cities does not mean that we can't get to Baghdad as planned. Battles might be won where analysts aren't looking while progress is slow in the obvious places
Monday, March 24, 2003
A Good Question about War Coverage
From Rand Simberg:
Is It Just Me?
Or is the press coverage this weekend reminiscent of the coverage of Tet? It was a US victory that was reported as a disaster, because the assumption was that the Viet Cong weren't capable of mounting an offensive.
Which made me wonder: do most journalists think that the reporters got Tet wrong in '68? Is it something that gets discusssed and analyzed in J-school?
From Rand Simberg:
Is It Just Me?
Or is the press coverage this weekend reminiscent of the coverage of Tet? It was a US victory that was reported as a disaster, because the assumption was that the Viet Cong weren't capable of mounting an offensive.
Which made me wonder: do most journalists think that the reporters got Tet wrong in '68? Is it something that gets discusssed and analyzed in J-school?
Hollywood: AWOL in the War on Terror
After Pearl Harbor, Hollywood went to war. Some stars, like Jimmy Stewart, served in combat. Many others were in uniform in other capacities. After 9-11, our betters in Hollywood did a couple of benefits.
The movie industry,itself, churned out movie after movie where heroes fought the Axis. Every serial worked plots about the evil Axis into their cliffhangers. Even Sherlock Holmes and Tarzan took on the Nazis.
After 9-11, Hollywood actually changed plots in order not to feature Islamic terrorists (See Sum of All Fears).
Even before we entered the war, comedies had begun to mock Hitler and his gangsters. The Three Stooges and Chaplin led the way.
Saddam and Usama have gotten off lightly. I can only think of a song by Adam Sandler about UBL and the South Park episodes about Saddam and Satan.
I can understand that writers and directors do not want to whip up anti-Islamic feeling. But surely these brilliant and subtle intellects could come up with plots that distinguished between UBL and the average Muslim.
And, i must note, that the entertainment industry has no problem working the tired old government conspiracy angle. Why the tender consideration for Islamic feelings and a positive eagerness to paint the police, the CIA, and the uniformed military as thugs, coup-plotters, and fascists?
After Pearl Harbor, Hollywood went to war. Some stars, like Jimmy Stewart, served in combat. Many others were in uniform in other capacities. After 9-11, our betters in Hollywood did a couple of benefits.
The movie industry,itself, churned out movie after movie where heroes fought the Axis. Every serial worked plots about the evil Axis into their cliffhangers. Even Sherlock Holmes and Tarzan took on the Nazis.
After 9-11, Hollywood actually changed plots in order not to feature Islamic terrorists (See Sum of All Fears).
Even before we entered the war, comedies had begun to mock Hitler and his gangsters. The Three Stooges and Chaplin led the way.
Saddam and Usama have gotten off lightly. I can only think of a song by Adam Sandler about UBL and the South Park episodes about Saddam and Satan.
I can understand that writers and directors do not want to whip up anti-Islamic feeling. But surely these brilliant and subtle intellects could come up with plots that distinguished between UBL and the average Muslim.
And, i must note, that the entertainment industry has no problem working the tired old government conspiracy angle. Why the tender consideration for Islamic feelings and a positive eagerness to paint the police, the CIA, and the uniformed military as thugs, coup-plotters, and fascists?
A brilliant Comparison
Just read this.
There's nothing here as good as this.
But then come back, okay?
Just read this.
There's nothing here as good as this.
But then come back, okay?
Oscars
My luck. Flip through the channels just in time to see Michael Moore do his act. Yes, there were a lot of boos, but there was plenty of clapping as well.
Hollywood isn't America. They see themselves as something apart....something superior. And why not, they get paid huge sums of money and receive pampering no Louis could imagine. Why shouldn't they think they are better and smarter than the rest of us.
Moore and Streisand called to mind one of my favorite Tom Wolfe quotes.
"From the outset the eminence of this new creature, the intellectual, who was to play such a tremendous role in the history of the twentieth century, was inseperable from his necessary indignation. It was his indignation thatelevated him to a plateau of moral superiority. Once up there, he was in a position to look down on the rest of humanity. And it did not cost him any effort, intellectual or otherwise. As Marshall McLuhan would put it years later: 'Moral indignation is a technique used to endow the idiot with dignity.'"
My luck. Flip through the channels just in time to see Michael Moore do his act. Yes, there were a lot of boos, but there was plenty of clapping as well.
Hollywood isn't America. They see themselves as something apart....something superior. And why not, they get paid huge sums of money and receive pampering no Louis could imagine. Why shouldn't they think they are better and smarter than the rest of us.
Moore and Streisand called to mind one of my favorite Tom Wolfe quotes.
"From the outset the eminence of this new creature, the intellectual, who was to play such a tremendous role in the history of the twentieth century, was inseperable from his necessary indignation. It was his indignation thatelevated him to a plateau of moral superiority. Once up there, he was in a position to look down on the rest of humanity. And it did not cost him any effort, intellectual or otherwise. As Marshall McLuhan would put it years later: 'Moral indignation is a technique used to endow the idiot with dignity.'"
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