Judge Richard Posner is carving out a new niche for himself as a critic of blue ribbon commissions. (See also here). RTWT but this is a point that needs to be repeated over and over:
Before the invasion of Iraq, nearly every competent observer, including the intelligence services of foreign nations opposed to the invasion, believed that Saddam Hussein had a stockpile of chemical and biological weapons and was trying to build nuclear bombs as well. Hussein's history, and above all the logic of the situation -- surely he wouldn't risk his regime by failing to come clean if did not have such weapons -- created a presumption that he had them.
FWIW: I posted a lot about the question of intelligence failures and the 9/11 Commission last summer. If you are interested, scroll through the August 2004 and September 2004 archives.
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