The elephant in the Steelers living room

Bill Cowher has coached Pittsburgh for 13 years. In that time, he has won a lot of games, but we are still waiting for that Super Bowl trophy. That doesn't make him a bad coach. But winning the Lombardi trophy is the point, after all.

Leaving emotion out of it, the numbers are scary for Steelers fans.

Twenty-two men have won Super Bowls. On average, they won their first one in their fourth season with the team. The longest any coach waited was 12 years (Tom Landry). Apparently, if lightning strikes, it strikes early in a coaches tenure.

Even when it strikes, it doesn't stay long. Coaches who win multiple rings win their last one around year eight. (Again, Landry is the outlier with a win in his eighteenth season.) Chuck Noll won his last championship win his eleventh season. Don Shula won his in only his fourth year at Miami.

One thing that is interesting is that before 1998 every coach except Shula won his first championship with the first team he headed. Since then, four coaches won on their second time around as head coach. That's six out of seven of the last winners.

Now the speculation.

One theory is that over time a winning coach becomes too successful at refining his system and imposing it on a team. He gets "his kind" of players who run his offense and defense. For example, Chuck Noll liked smart, disciplined, tough players. But in the great years some of his best players-Bradshaw, Greene, Harris-were not perfect fits for his system. They were tough and smart, but they were sometimes undisciplined. That tension created something special.

The same thing happens with assistant coaches. Over time, the best ones move on to bigger jobs and are replaced by acolytes. I don't think this is due to a conscious decision; it is just the nature of the process. A young head coach is more open to his staff and they are more vocal. After five or ten years, there is a gap in age and stature which makes assistants hesitant to speak up and coaches less willing to listen. Also, a head coach is less aware of the young talent in the league's coaching ranks: he doesn't have the time to follow those matters closely.

Another possible explanation is that winning it all requires a relentless intensity that burns good coaches out. Joe Gibbs and Bill Walsh walked away at their peak. Maybe the even-keel, which leads to longevity, also works against attaining the prize.

One thing about Cowher has puzzled me in recent years. For a fiery guy, he sure gives his coordinators a lot of latitude. After the 2003 season, he admitted that the Steelers had become too pass-oriented. That was obvious during the season, but he was unwilling to force Mularkey to change.

Update: Off to OTB's Beltway Traffic Jam.